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Threat Analysis

Color Revolution

Color revolutions are a typically non-violent form of coup or revolution taken against a government.

Civil War or RevolutionColorRevolutionCoupConflictLegitimacyAuthorityCapacity

Color revolutions are a typically non-violent form of coup or revolution taken against a government. The typical goal of a color revolution is to “topple an existing government in the shortest amount of time and with the least amount of human suffering.”

Traditionally, revolutions have taken considerable time/resources to complete. Here are the typical timeframes for various forms of revolution:

RevolutionTimeframe
Political ReformFrom a few years to many decades.
Insurgency / Civil WarAverage timeframe of 10 years.
Color RevolutionsFrom a few weeks to a maximum of a few months.

To achieve this expedited timeframe, a very specific playbook is used. In it, detailed plans are put together to attack the three pillars of government systematically. But, the plan is fully formed before any action begins - it’s important that all efforts be undertaken simultaneously to achieve the best effect.

The three pillars are typically attacked in these ways:

PillarActions
LegitimacyConvincing others that the government leaders were not legitimately elected, etc. and therefore do not need to be followed / obeyed and should be resisted through other efforts.
AuthorityConvincing others to ignore laws or otherwise directly disregard or ignore the authority of government. The government is immoral, and therefore does not need to be obeyed or supported.
CapacityReducing access to the resources government needs to function. This can be money, people, natural resources, or a combination of these. This is commonly done by blocking or restricting chokepoints like ports, railways, etc.

While officially nonviolent, violence is typically used as a tool - specifically the threat of violence. They’ve found that carrying out violence typically has negative ramifications, while the threat achieves the same goal while allowing them to maintain the “moral high ground”.

One typical “leverage point” used in color revolutions surround immigrants or other unique sects of the population in some way. Typically, these groups are either vilified or glorified to negatively affect the legitimacy or authority of the government.