AI Catastrophe

The newest entry on the list. Cataloged honestly, without the hype in either direction.

ScopeExistentialCauseVariousDriven bySystemicImpactCatastrophicLikelihoodRare

Why it matters

What AI Catastrophe would mean for you

Three numbers decide how important AI Catastrophe is to your preparedness planning. Impact and Likelihood are general baselines. Vulnerability depends on how prepared you are for this threat.

ImpactCatastrophic9/9

NegligibleCatastrophic

The tail Impact is civilization-scale and hard to bound, which is why it's cataloged honestly at the top even though the path is speculative.

LikelihoodRare1/9

RareFrequent

The newest and most speculative entry, with very low near-term odds, so the Likelihood sits at the bottom.

VulnerabilityNot rated

NegligibleCatastrophic

This number is yours. It measures how hard AI Catastrophe would actually hit your household given what you already have in place. Rate it in Threat Planning — then all three multiply into your personal threat rating.

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General baselines — How we rate threats →

Be ready

Preparing for AI Catastrophe

Concrete moves that lower your Vulnerability. Add any of them and we'll track it as an action on your threat list.

Add to my threat list

Keep the broad resilience that covers any systemic shock.

Reduce single points of failure in your digital life.

Stay informed without hype in either direction.

Favor adaptable skills and local capability.

Learn more

Articles on AI Catastrophe

Deep Dive

Threat Analysis·13 min read

Every Past Technology Made More Jobs Than It Killed. Don't Count on AI to Follow the Rule.

The comforting story is that technology always destroys some jobs and creates more — so AI will too. The mechanics of this one break that pattern, and the household that plans for a permanent income shock instead of a temporary one is the one that comes through it.

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Deep Dive

Threat Analysis·7 min read

You Can't Prep for a Threat This Undefined — So Build the Kind That Doesn't Need a Forecast

AI catastrophe is real enough to list and too undefined to plan for directly. The honest hedge is broad resilience plus fixing the one thing your whole digital life hangs on.

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