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Threats / Asteroid Impact

Asteroid Impact

Vanishingly unlikely in any given year. Included for completeness, ranked accordingly.

ScopeExistentialCauseNaturalDriven bySystemicImpactCatastrophicLikelihoodRare

Asteroid Impact

Why it matters

What Asteroid Impact would mean for you

Three numbers decide how important Asteroid Impact is to your preparedness planning. Impact and Likelihood are general baselines. Vulnerability depends on how prepared you are for this threat.

ImpactCatastrophic9/9

NegligibleCatastrophic

A large enough strike is an extinction-class event - the single most severe outcome on the list, and like the other civilization-scale threats it's rated by that defining scenario rather than a smaller regional hit; its saving grace lives entirely in the Likelihood, not the Impact.

LikelihoodRare1/9

RareFrequent

Astronomically unlikely in any given year, so the Likelihood is at the bottom; included for completeness.

VulnerabilityNot rated

NegligibleCatastrophic

This number is yours. It measures how hard Asteroid Impact would actually hit your household given what you already have in place. Rate it in Threat Planning — then all three multiply into your personal threat rating.

Rate it in Threat Planning →

General baselines — How we rate threats →

Be ready

Preparing for Asteroid Impact

Concrete moves that lower your Vulnerability. Add any of them and we'll track it as an action on your threat list.

Add to my threat list

Keep the same broad, deep reserves that cover any catastrophe.

Don't over-invest against a vanishingly rare event.

Stay generally informed.

Focus your real effort on likelier threats.

Learn more

Articles on Asteroid Impact

Threat Analysis·6 min read

The Math Puts the Asteroid Last — a Case Study in Correctly Preparing for Almost Nothing

Work the size-frequency numbers, the impact-winter physics, and the shift to detection-and-deflection, and the biggest catastrophe on the list rationally gets the smallest budget. The framework that zeros it out is the one that sizes everything else.

Act on it

Tools for Asteroid Impact

Threat Planning

Rate this threat, rank it, and build its plan.

Asteroid Impact Sim

Crater, blast and thermal effects by size and speed.

Make Asteroid Impact part of your plan

Add it to your personal threat list, score it for your own household, or pull the real hazard data for your county.

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