As I write this, it’s hard for me to believe that seven months have passed since the war with Iran began. But this time period along with all the events within it give us enough information to begin making some assessments about what may happen in the near future regarding this conflict. To understand the full context, we need to understand the entire situation, beginning with the events of last year.
The 12-day war
Conflict between Israel/USA and Iran had been simmering for years. There was major escalation in June of 2025 that became known as the “Twelve-Day War”.
On June 13, 2025 Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, using over 200 fighter jets in surprise airstrikes on over 100 military and nuclear sites around Iran. This included many targeted assassinations of key military leaders and nuclear scientists.
From this point, there were continued back-and-forth strikes between Israel and Iran. Israel would use it’s fighter jets, and Iran would launch missiles. On June 22, 2025 the US became directly involved in what would be called Operation Midnight Hammer. The US utilized B-2 stealth bombers to strike the Natanz and Fordow nuclear enrichment facilities. On June 24th, a ceasefire was agreed upon, ending the conflict.
An interesting thing to me was that both Israel and Iran claimed that they won. It was also clear that hostilities weren’t over. On August 27, 2025, Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, told Iranian media that, “We are not in a ceasefire, we are in a stage of war. I think another war may happen, and after that, there may be no more wars.” Some took this to mean a nuclear escalation would be coming in the future. Thankfully, that has not occurred.
The debate
From an analysis standpoint, we must also understand the debate that was going on behind the scenes during this period of time. The most visible piece of this was the debate between Tucker Carlson and Senator Ted Cruz on the June 18, 2025 edition of the Tucker Carlson Show podcast. While I don’t think either man represented their positions well, this event essentially made each the “representative” of their side of the argument at the time:
Cruz:
Cruz argued that Iran represented a fundamental threat to global security and should be isolated, weakened and ultimately toppled.
- Preemptive action must be taken to prevent a nuclear Iran
- Israel is America’s most vital ally in the Middle East, and they face a immediate and existential threat from Iran and its proxies.
- Projecting American military might would continue the Reagan-era doctrine of “peace through strength”.
- Iran was a long state sponsor of terrorism, and we must strike the head of the snake, so to speak.
Carlson:
Argued that foreign regime-change operations are costly, destabilizing to the region and rarely serve the direct security or economic interests of the US. Specifically, it would cause:
- An economic crisis caused by closing the Straight of Hormuz.
- Would lead into an “unwinnable” conventional war (troops on the ground in Iran).
- Would lead to terrorist attacks and other asymmetric warfare on the United States directly.
Clearly, in the short-term, the Trump administration sided with the Cruz opinion and intervened on June 22nd, destroying key Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities. And I believe the events that followed surprised both sides, as the action didn’t create the response that either expected. For the time, it seemed that the Trump administration had found a middle-ground to achieve a key objective in Iran without any escalation.
Unrest in Iran
Starting in December of 2025, massive anti-government protests began within Iran. The protests were triggered over high prices, inflation and overall economic distress. It soon turned into an anti-establishment movement that spread across all 31 provinces. Thousands of citizens took to the streets as they demanded basic human rights, freedom and a change in government.
The IRGC used lethal force to crush the protests and the government shut down and severely restricted internet access to prevent coordination. These efforts were largely successful and the protests reduced dramatically.
In mid-January of 2026, President Trump posted on Truth Social, “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!… HELP IS ON ITS WAY”
By the end of February when the US struck Iran, the protests were all but over. Even so, in his official address that announced the start of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, President Trump told the Iranian people to, “take over your government.” Trump went on to say, “To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force.”
In the days that followed, there were massive protests in the streets of Tehran. Some say it was celebration of the death of the Ayatollah, while others say it was demonstrations against the United States for killing him. Unfortunately, I have no way of knowing which and this is emblematic of most conflict within the Middle East — it’s hard to know what’s true.
The failsafe
Many people still don’t realize that Iran has two different militaries and they have to be considered separately.
Artesh
Like most nations, Iran has a standing military that they call the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, or commonly referred to as the Artesh. The Artesh contains approximately 610,000 active personnel and about 350,000 reservists. It’s a conventional military force that includes Army, Navy and Air Force components.
IRGC
But unlike most nations, Iran has a second military, called the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This group has approximately 190,000 personnel and is an elite parallel force with one specific task: preserving the regime.
After the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founding supreme leader of Iran, immediately created the IRGC. He had studied the history of previous coups within Iran (the 1953 coup of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh led by the CIA and British Intelligence, etc.). He didn’t want the same fate to befall him, so he purposefully created a system that would be impervious to western influence. This system relied on an entire military structure that was based upon one key foundation: religion.
He built a literal army of those that were the most religiously devout to Shia Islam. Religion is one of the strongest driving forces for any person and he understood this and weaponized it to his own benefit. As a descendent of Muhammad, Khomeini was the worldwide religious leader of Shia Islam in addition to the political leader of Iran. As a result, this new army was unquestionably loyal to him personally, not the nation. Over the 45 years since, an entire generation has been brought up to deify him, cementing a structure that cannot be disabled easily.
To complicate things further, the IRGC was broken up into approximately 31 different independent groups (one for each province). Each can operate completely autonomously and have no higher task than preserving the Islamic government and exacting revenge on any that would attempt to destroy it. This makes decapitation extremely difficult as 31 separate organizations must be destroyed simultaneously. Furthermore, by eliminating the Ayatollah as we did in February, we have no single organization left to negotiate with — we’re literally fighting a hydra.
I can’t leave this section without noting a side effect of killing the Ayatollah — the USA killed the religious leader of millions of Shia Muslims. Because of this, the IRGC is not likely to negotiate with the United States and we must assume that this act will further radicalize some.
Expansion to a 2nd straight - the Bab al-Mandeb
The Houthis of Yemen attempted a partial blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb straight in 2023. They utilized long-range drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles to target merchant vessels. While they didn’t fully close the straight, their actions caused transits of the straight to drop by almost 50% between 2023 and 2025 until a ceasefire with the US was reached and the straight re-opened fully.
This matters to the current conflict because the Houthis are Shia Muslims and have long been allied with and supported by Iran and have begun to exert pressure on the Bab al-Mandeb straight. On July 20, 2026, the Houthis declared a naval blockade of the straight, specifically targeting Saudi Arabian ports and shipping vessels. To prevent a total closure of this corridor, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan and several East African nations formed the Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance on July 30, 2026 and have since deployed warships to keep the straight open.
The Houthis haven’t given up and on September 10, 2026 they seized the port city of Mocha. Then, the Houthis seized the coastal town of Dhubab and the islands of Perim and Mayun that sit in the middle of the Bab el-Mandeb Straight. At this point, the Houthis control the entire Yemeni coastline along the Red Sea, giving the group effective control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Houthis then conducted a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, causing the Saudis to shut it down as “a precautionary measure.” It’s since been learned that the pipeline suffered massive damage and will require weeks to months to repair. As a result, Saudi Arabia has cancelled all oil deliveries to Europe for October. Some are claiming that Saudi Arabia will deliver no oil, anywhere in the short-term. If true, it means that approximately 12% of the global oil supply is completely offline.
Regardless of the severity, it’s clear that the Houthis are successful as a multiplying force within the larger Iran-USA conflict.
What’s the current situation - who’s winning?
At this point, I’d call it a stalemate — and it kills me to say that. Let’s look at the objectives stated by President Trump, and Secretaries Rubio and Hegseth and gauge each one honestly:
| Objective | Grade | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Denying Iran nuclear capabilities | D | We buried two main facilities, but they still have the Zagros nuclear facility (Pickaxe Mountain) and potentially others in operation. It’s likely they’re even more anxious to get a nuclear weapon than when the war began. |
| Eliminating ballistic missile power | F | They still have stockpiles of potentially tens of thousands of missiles and drones, which they’re still using on a near daily basis. |
| Annihilating Naval and Air Power | A | We have successfully decimated their navy and air force. |
| Defeating proxy influence | F | The Houthis, Hezbollah, and others are actively causing trouble with no end in sight and if anything their impact is worse, not less. |
| Freedom of navigation | F | Ships cannot freely transit the straight of Hormuz. Ships are currently passing at a rate of around 10% or normal levels (10 vs 100-130 before). |
| Regime change | F | The IRGC is still in firm control of the country, with Khomeini’s son as the new Ayatollah. Some say he is more radical than his father and more likely to pursue nuclear weapons. |
Based on the stated objectives, it’s clear that the US has not met most of them yet. And even worse, I don’t see a clear path toward achieving most of these objectives at this time.
Where do we go from here?
I don’t have a crystal ball, but we can use history to help predict the future. Based on the events of the past 6 months and the events leading up to it, I do believe I know where the general progression will lead:
- The “revolution” or “regime change” we hoped would occur in Iran isn’t coming. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is firmly in control of the country in a distributed network that cannot be destroyed easily even if we happened to kill the new Ayatollah.
- Iran isn’t going to back down. They lost their religious leader, so allowing the US or Israel to “win” isn’t an option. Furthermore, I believe that they think they can “outlast” the US in terms of economic damage, etc. caused by the standoff, and are definitely sure they can outlast Europe. I think they believe Europe will apply pressure to the US, but I don’t think Trump cares about Europe any longer, which means the standoff will continue.
- While the US has been smart so far and kept our warships out of range, I believe it’s only a matter of time until Iran hits/sinks one. I worry that if it were to occur it would ultimately lead to US troops on the ground and that will not end well for anyone.
Ultimately, I believe this means that we will be “at war” with Iran for the foreseeable future (probably for the remainder of Trump’s term at a minimum). Recently, the deployment of 50,000 troops in the area have been extended through the middle of 2027, which indicates that the Pentagon expects the conflict to last well into next year as well.
If the Straight of Hormuz remains closed for months to years to come, what will this mean for the US and the world at large? Quite simply, I don’t know and I don’t think anyone else really does either. The safe answer is increased fuel costs (higher than now to be clear), and that’s a near-certainty in my opinion. It’s the secondary and third-order effects that are the real unknowns. Could it lead to a worldwide economic crisis? It’s likely. World War 3? Maybe. Terrorist attacks on the US homeland? Possible. This is the part of this threat that you need to ponder and begin putting preps into place in anticipation of what may come.
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