If you’re unfamiliar with the study of the end times, I recommend you first read the introduction for this threat.
All threats on this site are rated for impact and likelihood. Unlike most threats on the site, this one is a certainty - it will happen someday. One day Jesus will return to the earth. We know this because the bible tells us so.
“Look, he is coming with the clouds,” and “every eye will see him, even those who pierced him”; and all peoples on earth “will mourn because of him.” So shall it be! Amen. — Revelation 1:7
And we know from various scriptures that the period preceding His return will be a very difficult time - what we commonly refer to as the “end times” or “Tribulation”.
This means the likelihood rating becomes a question about when it will occur, not if. I ended up rating this threat a 2 out of 9 for likelihood — near the bottom of the board. This page explains the reasons why, which comes down to a combination of the bible and history.
Rapture note
The timing of the end times is definitely tied into the subject of the Rapture. Unfortunately, that event’s timing is the most debated component of the end times. There are 3 prevailing timings for the rapture:
- Pre-trib — The rapture occurs before the tribulation period.
- Mid-trib — The rapture occurs at the middle of the tribulation period.
- Post-trib — The rapture occurs at the end of the tribulation period.
Because it is the safest assumption from a preparedness standpoint, this page will assume a post-trib position. This would mean that all Christians endure the entire Tribulation period. Now, you may have a different view (I may as well), but as I said, this is the safest assumption - it’s best to plan for the worst.
History - the “practical” argument
Every generation since Jesus has believed that they would be the generation to see Jesus return. The largest reason is that the Bible teaches us to be expectant for it and to even look forward to this event:
“Let your gentleness be evident to all. The Lord is near.” — Philippians 4:5
“The end of all things is near. Therefore be alert and of sober mind so that you may pray.” — 1 Peter 4:7
“Blessed is the one who reads aloud the words of this prophecy, and blessed are those who hear it and take to heart what is written in it, because the time is near.” — Revelation 1:3
And yes, I’m expectant and pray diligently that Jesus comes soon. However, my practical nature also can’t ignore this history. Christians over the last 2000 years have thought that they were in the time of Christ’s return, and were wrong. Statistically, if I take this position, I’m likely wrong too.
It’s for this reason I’d struggle giving this a 9 for likelihood, but it’s not the only reason it’s rated where it is. The bible does give us some clues regarding timing, and they must be considered as well.
Birth Pains
While the bible does warn against setting a specific date for Jesus’ return (Matthew 24:36), this same chapter gives a clear outline of things that must happen before Jesus’ return. The Disciples asked Jesus specifically about how they will know that he’s about to return:
As Jesus was sitting on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to him privately. “Tell us,” they said, “when will this happen, and what will be the sign of your coming and of the end of the age?” — Matthew 24:3
Notice that they asked him two things. They asked the events that will be signs of his coming as well as the “end of the age” - the end of the world. While most of Jesus’ answer is a summary of the entire Tribulation period, some items are viewed to be “prerequisites” or things that will occur before the tribulation begins:
4 Jesus answered: “Watch out that no one deceives you. 5 For many will come in my name, claiming, ‘I am the Messiah,’ and will deceive many. 6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. 7 Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. 8 All these are the beginning of birth pains. — Matthew 24:4-8
These verses list several events that will occur before the tribulation:
- False Messiah’s coming – this could be false religions as well as pastors not teaching correctly.
- Wars & rumors of wars
- Famines and earthquakes in various places (famines can also be translated as “pestilences” – diseases)
Throughout the earth
A few verses later, Jesus mentions a specific event that must occur before “the end”:
“And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in the whole world as a testimony to all nations, and then the end will come.” — Matthew 24:14
This is generally interpreted to mean that all people groups on earth will hear the gospel prior to Jesus’ return. This idea is supported by this verse:
“After this I looked, and there before me was a great multitude that no one could count, from every nation, tribe, people and language, standing before the throne and before the Lamb. They were wearing white robes and were holding palm branches in their hands.” — Revelation 7:9
This verse describes people in heaven from every nation, tribe, people and language. The only way they can be there is if they’ve accepted the Gospel, and they can’t hear the Gospel unless it was preached to them:
“How, then, can they call on the one they have not believed in? And how can they believe in the one of whom they have not heard? And how can they hear without someone preaching to them?” — Romans 10:14
The goal of the Church since the Apostles has been the fulfilment of these passages. Christopher Columbus wrote in his Book of Prophecies that he saw himself as a divinely chosen instrument to carrying out this purpose specifically. In modern times, the International Mission Board (IMB) of the Southern Baptist Convention (SBC) is widely considered the largest international Christian missionary-sending organization in the world, and fulfilment of this verse is their stated mission.
According to the IMB’s people group data, out of 12,381 people groups on earth, 2,961 remain unengaged. The Joshua Project states that out of 10,422 people groups, 4,485 are unreached.
Either way you look at this, it doesn’t appear that we’re very close to completing this effort. This is the main reason I set the likelihood at a 2.
Israel - the “super sign”
In this same passage, Jesus later adds one other major clue:
32 “Now learn this lesson from the fig tree: As soon as its twigs get tender and its leaves come out, you know that summer is near. 33 Even so, when you see all these things, you know that it is near, right at the door. 34 Truly I tell you, this generation will certainly not pass away until all these things have happened. 35 Heaven and earth will pass away, but my words will never pass away.” — Matthew 24:32-35
Israel is commonly referred to as a fig tree in the Old Testament, so it’s viewed that this passage means that Israel will be restored as a nation. This was always seen as a “super-sign” that meant that the end times were imminent, and also viewed very skeptically – most scholars until the middle 20th century viewed this as an impossibility. But they were proven wrong in 1948 when Israel was restored as a nation. Then, in 1967 they gained control of Jerusalem, cementing for all time that the prophecy was completely fulfilled. Which helps to prove that most of the end times prophecies should be taken literally, even if we don’t understand them or believe they’re even possible.
So, yes, I believe that this “super-sign” prophecy has been fulfilled. But notice that there’s a timeframe attached to it - a generation. Specifically, it says that the “generation” that sees the fulfilment of this prophecy will not pass away before Jesus’ returns.
Now, from a practical standpoint, it’s clear that it doesn’t mean everyone alive on May 14, 1948 would see Jesus return. Some died the following day during the Arab-Israeli war, and many have died since. So, generally, it’s believed that this means that these two dates would fall within a “generation”, which means we need to settle how long a “generation” is…
Side note: Abram (Abraham), the patriarch of Israel was born in the year 1948 after creation. It’s a heck of a “coincidence” that Israel was restored in the year 1948 AD…
The fig tree generation
Unfortunately, the original Greek word used in Matthew 24 for “generation” does not mean a specific amount of time. This means that we must determine this length of time ourselves.
Generally, there are several lengths of time that are normally cited as being a “biblical generation”:
- 30 years — In general, the timeframe for a child to grow and become a parent
- 40 years — The common length of time for a period of judgement or a complete turnover of adult populations. For example, the 40 years spent wandering in the desert was to allow the older, unbelieving generation to die off (Deuteronomy 2:14-16).
- 70-80 years — Psalm 90:8 lists both times specifically.
- 100 years — In the early generations, the time for a child to grow and become a parent was frequently this long.
I’m going to rule out 30 and 100 as I feel they’re very speculative. This leaves 40 and 70-80.
40 years
If 1948 is the start of the generation, then 40 years would put it in 1988. And if it started in 1967, it would end in 2007. Both dates are past, so it can’t be it.
Side note: There were many that “predicted” the end to come in 1988. Some people gave away everything they had in preparation for Christ’s return. I mention this as a cautionary tale. Jesus warns against setting a date in Matthew 24:36, and this is a good reason to heed that warning.
70-80 years
Psalm 90 lists a couple timeframes, which makes it very unique in Scripture. And, this passage deals specifically with the timing of “wrath” being poured out, which has major parallels to the end times (the judgements are described as the “wrath of God” in multiple places).
“Our days may come to seventy years, or eighty, if our strength endures;” — Psalm 90:10
This gives two possible lengths. Let’s assume the max, or 80 years. 80 years after 1949 is 2029. 80 years after 1967 is 2047. As a result, if Israel’s return is the “super sign”, it would appear that Jesus return should occur before 2047.
Now, since I put a date about 2 paragraphs after I warned about setting a date, I need to clarify something. The date of 2047 is predicated on about 3 different “ifs”. Yes, I’m doing the math and noting where it ends up. But I’m not saying that it will happen, and that’s the key distinction. This article has given several other “signs” and/or “requirements” that must occur before Jesus’ return. This has to be looked at in totality and not relying on only one prediction.
Bottom Line
- History says we’re wrong — Every generation of Christians have thought theirs was the generation that would see Christ return and they were all wrong.
- Birth pains are the warning — Matthew 24:4-8 lists 3 birth pains that will precede the end times.
- Gospel throughout the earth — This is the one to watch. Until it’s complete, Jesus won’t be back.
- Israel is the super sign — This appears to be met, and possibly sets the boundary for when Jesus’ return could be.
While the end times is an interesting subject, it’s not the most important thing. Read about what is the most important thing here.
Scripture quotations taken from The Holy Bible, New International Version®, NIV® Copyright © 1973, 1978, 1984, 2011 by Biblica, Inc. Used by permission. All rights reserved worldwide.